In response to the harsh economic realities facing the country, including a steep depreciation of the Naira and rising inflation, Nigerians significantly curtailed their spending on foreign air travel. According to recent data, expenditure on international air travel dropped by 30% over a two-year period, falling from $3.78 billion in 2022 to $2.66 billion in 2024.
Aviation analysts link this sharp decline primarily to the 244% depreciation of the Naira — from N450.71/$ in early 2023 to N1,553.73/$ in 2024 — coupled with an unprecedented rise in inflation, which surged from 21.34% in 2023 to 34.8% in 2024. These economic pressures have drastically reduced the purchasing power of many Nigerians, especially the middle class, making foreign travel increasingly unaffordable.
In addition, other contributing factors include stringent immigration policies in popular destination countries and the removal of Nigeria from E-visa and visa-on-arrival eligibility by several nations. These changes have discouraged non-essential travel, particularly among individuals seeking to emigrate, commonly referred to as “japa.”
The cost of international travel has also surged due to operational challenges faced by foreign airlines operating in Nigeria. Many airlines, unable to repatriate their earnings due to foreign exchange constraints, have resorted to pricing tickets in dollars, further pushing up fares and placing foreign travel beyond the reach of average Nigerians.
Data obtained by Financial Vanguard from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confirms this trend. In 2023, Nigerians’ spending on international air travel fell by 18% year-on-year to $3.09 billion, down from $3.78 billion in 2022. The decline persisted into 2024, with a further 14% drop to $2.66 billion. This represents a total reduction of $1.12 billion, or 30%, over the two-year period.
This reversal is particularly stark when contrasted with the post-pandemic boom in international travel, where spending jumped by 255% from $1.06 billion in 2020 to $3.78 billion in 2022.
Experts Weigh In on the Causes
Captain Ado Sanusi, Managing Director and CEO of Aero Contractors, attributed the decline to widespread economic hardship. He emphasized that high inflation and currency devaluation have eroded the disposable income of the middle class, relegating air travel to a luxury many can no longer afford.
Sanusi further pointed to rising aviation fuel costs, forex scarcity for critical airline operations like maintenance and aircraft leasing, and tighter visa regimes as additional deterrents to international travel. He also highlighted the pricing of tickets in dollars by some foreign airlines as a significant barrier.
Funmi Adebowale, Head of Research at Parthian Partners, echoed these sentiments, noting that foreign exchange liberalization in 2023 led to significant Naira devaluation, which heavily impacted the aviation sector. According to her, the weak currency alone accounts for about 50% of the drop in travel spending, while economic hardship — including high inflation and stagnant wages — contributed about 35%. She estimated that stricter immigration controls accounted for the remaining 15%.
Chris Aligbe, CEO of Belujane Konzult and former Public Affairs Manager at Nigeria Airways, also pointed to the deteriorating economy. He noted that for most Nigerians, feeding and basic survival have taken precedence over international travel.
Similarly, Olumide Ohunayo, General Secretary of the Aviation Safety Round Table Initiative (ART), emphasized that the weak exchange rate and inflation have compelled people to prioritize necessities like food over discretionary expenses such as travel.
Dr. Rex Okunor, Director of Safety & Quality at Afrowings Aviation, described the decline as a predictable outcome of the ongoing economic crisis. He highlighted the aviation sector’s dependence on the US dollar for key operations such as maintenance, training, and international certifications, noting that poor foreign reserves and limited salary growth have further weakened demand for international travel.
Outlook for 2025 Remains Divided
Experts are divided on whether this downward trend will persist in 2025. Adebowale expressed cautious optimism, citing CBN reforms that have helped stabilize the foreign exchange market and potential cost reductions from local aviation fuel production at the Dangote Refinery.
However, she warned that the sector will continue to struggle with weak consumer demand unless there is a significant improvement in household income.
Okunor offered a more pessimistic view, stating that unless the Naira appreciates and Nigeria achieves substantial economic growth, the aviation sector may experience an even sharper decline in 2025 and 2026.
Sanusi, on the other hand, believes that a recovery is possible if inflation decreases and the economy stabilizes, thereby restoring disposable income and consumer confidence. Conversely, he cautioned that continued economic instability would only deepen the sector’s woes.
Ohunayo remained skeptical about any near-term recovery, pointing out that domestic airline capacity is still below pre-2022 levels and international travel continues to face major immigration hurdles. “We should really be looking to 2026 for any significant recovery,” he concluded.
