“The time is a quarter to midnight.” — Norman Borlaug (1914–2009)
Those were the words of Norman Borlaug, Nobel Prize laureate in Agriculture (1970) and the man widely known as the father of the Green Revolution. His statement, made while receiving the Nobel Prize, galvanized governments worldwide to prioritize food security. For a brief period, Nigeria embraced this vision under President Shehu Shagari and later General Ibrahim Babangida, moving toward sustainable food production between 1979–1983 and 1985–1993.
However, since 1994, the country has steadily regressed. Among the many national setbacks during 2015–2023—the Buhari years—the decline in food production was particularly severe. Despite the Central Bank’s ₦1 trillion Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), designed to boost yields of twelve crops including rice and cotton, production stagnated or worsened. Instead of progress, corruption and inefficiency consumed the initiative. Nigerians still remember the highly publicized “rice pyramids” before which President Buhari, Vice President Osinbajo, then CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele, and agricultural officials stood—symbols that quickly collapsed under the weight of reality.
Today, more than two years after Buhari and Emefiele left office, food insecurity is at its worst. My visits to Niger, Sokoto, and Ogun States, particularly in Ofada rice-growing zones, confirmed that rice—the nation’s most consumed staple—is facing alarming setbacks.
Rice as Nigeria’s Food Security Barometer
In advanced nations, bread is the “staff of life,” but in Nigeria, rice holds that role. Borlaug’s research helped raise global yields of wheat, rice, and corn—the three grains providing 70% of the world’s energy intake—by over 2000% since the Green Revolution. This progress kept famine at bay for much of the world. Unfortunately, Nigeria and much of Africa lagged behind. No crop illustrates this failure more starkly than rice.
Two weeks ago, I visited General Ibrahim Babangida and, during the trip, reconnected with veteran rice farmers in Zungeru, Niger State—once pillars of the state’s out-grower scheme. They helped sustain Haske Rice Mill in Sokoto, a once-thriving hub of production. But the reality on the ground is grim. From Dikko to Minna, and onward to Zungeru, signs of decline are everywhere. Minor crops like okra and vegetables, once abundant, are scarce in local markets. Rice farmers, discouraged by poor returns and systemic neglect, have abandoned rice entirely or shifted to other crops.
Rice Mills on the Brink
The headline in a recent report summed it up clearly: “Rice mills collapsing.” It reminded me of my own experience managing Africa’s largest, most modern, and nearly automated rice mill in Sokoto during the late 1980s. At that time, I worked with international researchers, government river basin authorities, over 50,000 out-growers across 19 states, hundreds of transporters and rice dealers, and even helped design the Goronyo Dam project in Sokoto, which transformed arid lands into productive rice fields.
That era showed what was possible with coordination, investment, and scientific research. Today, however, the situation is the opposite: collapse, neglect, and abandonment.
Why Nigeria’s Food Future Looks Bleak
According to recent findings, the causes of Nigeria’s deepening rice crisis can be summarized in two critical points:
1. Rising Imports and Smuggling: Rice importation has skyrocketed—from 7,000 tonnes in 1960 to 2.2 million tonnes by 2024 (FAO and CBN data). Smuggling thrives as domestic production falters.
2. Falling Domestic Production: Nigeria’s paddy rice output is projected to drop from 10 million metric tonnes in 2018 to just 4 million metric tonnes in 2025.
A Monumental Challenge Ahead
President Bola Tinubu faces one of the most daunting food security crises in Nigeria’s history. With production collapsing, imports rising, and farmers abandoning rice fields, the nation risks deepening hunger and instability unless urgent reforms are implemented.
Rice, once a symbol of hope and progress, now stands as the clearest indicator of Nigeria’s agricultural decline—and the toughest challenge for its future.
