The World Bank has issued a concerning forecast, projecting that poverty in Nigeria will rise by 3.6 percentage points over the next five years, extending through 2027. This projection is detailed in the Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, which was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report presents a bleak outlook for poverty alleviation in Nigeria, despite some recent improvements in economic activity, particularly in the non-oil sector during the final quarter of 2024. These gains, however, are being undermined by persistent structural challenges, such as overdependence on natural resources and issues related to national fragility, which continue to hinder sustainable economic progress.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria — along with other resource-rich and fragile countries in Sub-Saharan Africa — is expected to experience a significant rise in poverty levels. In contrast, non-resource-rich countries in the region are on track for faster poverty reduction due to more stable economic fundamentals.
The report specifically states:
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027.”
It further reveals that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the global epicenter of extreme poverty. In 2024, the region accounted for 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people. Alarmingly, half of the region’s 560 million extremely poor individuals were concentrated in just four countries.
When compared with other regions:
- South Asia accounted for 8% of the global extreme poor,
- East Asia and the Pacific for 2%,
- The Middle East and North Africa for 5%, and
- Latin America and the Caribbean for 3%.
The disparity in poverty reduction is largely driven by differing economic structures. Resource-rich countries like Nigeria are grappling with declining oil prices and weak fiscal institutions, both of which are hampering their ability to address poverty effectively. On the other hand, non-resource-rich economies are capitalizing on high agricultural commodity prices, which are helping to boost economic growth even amidst ongoing fiscal challenges.
The report elaborates on this trend:
“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates — averaging 46% in 2024. This is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.”
In response to these alarming trends, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria and other similarly affected nations prioritize improved fiscal governance. This includes strengthening fiscal structures and fostering a more robust fiscal contract with citizens. The goal is to create a more inclusive and resilient economy capable of achieving long-term poverty reduction and sustainable development.
