There are growing concerns about the successful implementation of Nigeria’s 2025 national budget following a significant drop in global crude oil prices. Over the weekend, oil prices fell sharply to $59 per barrel—marking the lowest price recorded so far this year and a steep decline from the previous high of over $70 per barrel. This represents a 15.7% decrease from the year’s peak.
Nigeria’s 2025 budget was based on optimistic benchmarks, including a projected oil price of $75 per barrel and a daily production output of more than two million barrels per day (bpd), including condensates. However, recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), contained in its April 2025 Monthly Oil Report, revealed a drop in the nation’s oil production to 1.6 million bpd in March—down from 1.7 million bpd in February—falling over 300,000 bpd short of budget targets.
The global oil market downturn was triggered last Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariff measures, which are set to raise the country’s effective tariff rate to its highest level in over a century. These tariffs have introduced significant uncertainty, shaking investor confidence and fueling volatility across global markets.
Further compounding the issue is the ramp-up in oil output by major producers. Vanguard investigations revealed that global oil supplies have increased due to heightened production and exports by various countries. This trend is expected to intensify as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies—collectively known as OPEC+—begin phasing out voluntary output cuts by increasing production by 411,000 bpd starting in May.
Speaking to Vanguard, Mazi Colman Obasi, National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), emphasized the urgent need for Nigeria to diversify its revenue streams. “The oil market has become extremely volatile due to global dynamics beyond our control. Nigeria must look beyond crude oil to secure sustainable foreign exchange inflows,” he said.
Olatide Jeremiah, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleum Price NG, also voiced his concern, stating, “The current plunge in oil prices poses a significant threat to the execution of the 2025 budget.”
Farouk Ahmed, CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), highlighted the dilemma this situation poses. While lower oil prices may appear beneficial for consumers, they are detrimental to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy. “Our revenue inflow is taking a hit. What’s more destabilizing is the unpredictable policy shifts coming from President Trump. One day, policies move in one direction; the next day, they are reversed. This inconsistency makes it nearly impossible to predict market movements.”
He noted that the recent U.S. tariff policies are not only affecting China but have global implications, contributing to heightened market volatility. Investors are increasingly engaging in day
