Imagine a Nigeria where only one political party holds sway — no opposition, no real choice, just a single voice shaping the nation’s future. It’s a scenario that’s beginning to haunt many citizens as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) consolidates its grip on power, seemingly unchallenged.
A growing wave of defections from opposition parties to the APC is rattling the nation. Conversations in marketplaces, offices, and homes revolve around a troubling question: Is Nigeria’s democracy under threat? Could the country be on the verge of becoming a one-party state, where the APC wields unchecked power?
The fear is not unfounded. Recent defections include all three PDP senators from Kebbi State and the Minority Leader of the Jigawa State House of Assembly. Since 2023, no fewer than 86 lawmakers — both federal and state — have switched allegiance to the APC, the majority of them from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Breakdown of Defections:
Senators: 7
House of Representatives Members: 19
Delta State Lawmakers: 22
Rivers State Lawmakers: 26
Edo State Lawmakers: 7
Abia State Lawmakers: 4
Jigawa Lawmakers: 1
Notable among the senators who defected are Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, Garba Maidoki (all PDP – Kebbi), Ned Nwoko (PDP – Delta), Francis Ezenwa (Labour Party – Imo), and Summaila Kawu (NNPP – Kano). The first to jump ship was the late Ifeanyi Ubah of the YPP in October 2023.
The House of Representatives has seen a similar exodus, with multiple PDP members from Delta, Kaduna, and Katsina abandoning the opposition. Even lawmakers from the Labour Party and NNPP are crossing over, further diluting the opposition’s strength.
In states like Rivers, 26 lawmakers are fighting legal battles to retain their seats after moving from the PDP to APC. Edo and Abia have also witnessed significant shifts, further weakening regional opposition fronts.
The Opposition in Disarray
The exodus is proving devastating for Nigeria’s opposition parties. The PDP, Labour Party (LP), and NNPP are battling internal crises, leadership struggles, and dwindling public confidence. The APC, on the other hand, is accused of using political deals and influence to lure defectors, positioning itself to dominate the 2027 elections.
Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, the APC National Chairman, appears to welcome this trend, even hinting that a one-party system could be acceptable. He draws comparisons to China, stating that if Nigerians freely choose to join the APC, it’s not something to oppose.
However, not everyone in the APC shares this view. Hon. Faruk Aliyu, a party chieftain and former lawmaker, pushed back, stating unequivocally that a one-party state is not what the APC stands for. “That’s Ganduje’s opinion, not the party’s,” he emphasized.
Echoes from the Past, Warnings for the Future
This isn’t Nigeria’s first brush with dominant-party politics. In the 2000s, the PDP held overwhelming power, absorbing opposition politicians and creating fears of a one-party system. But history shifted in 2015, when Nigerians rallied behind the APC to end the PDP’s long reign.
Political scientists now caution that while Nigeria isn’t yet a legal one-party state, it could be evolving into a one-party dominant state — where other parties exist but are electorally irrelevant.
Professor Jideofor Patrick Adibe of Nasarawa State University explained that in a dominant party system, no law bans other parties, but only one has meaningful electoral power. Examples include Sweden, Japan, and post-apartheid South Africa. Dominant party systems can still be democratic — but not always healthy for pluralism.
The Struggle to Protect Democracy
Some Nigerians are mobilizing to resist APC dominance. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is reportedly working to form a coalition that could challenge the ruling party in 2027. His spokesperson, Mazi Paul Ibe, notes Atiku’s long history of standing against dictatorship and one-party dominance — even surviving an assassination attempt during military rule in the 1990s.
Other prominent voices, like former President Goodluck Jonathan, have also weighed in. Jonathan argued that a one-party system can be effective — but only if it is deliberately structured and designed. If such a shift occurs through manipulation and coercion, he warns, it could plunge Nigeria into crisis.
Deeper Problems in the Political Landscape
Professor Hassan Saliu, head of the Nigerian Political Science Association, highlights a structural issue: political parties in Nigeria prioritize power and access to state resources over ideological competition. This weakens democracy and fuels defections.
Meanwhile, government officials like Biodun Ajiboye of the National Institute for Cultural Orientation dismiss the alarm, blaming the opposition for its failures. “If Nigeria becomes a one-party state, it will be because the opposition was too weak to compete,” he said.
Pros and Cons of a One-Party State
Globally, one-party systems have shown both strengths and weaknesses. China has leveraged its system for economic growth but at the cost of civil liberties. Tanzania used it to unify tribes post-independence, while Eritrea’s one-party rule is often criticized for human rights violations.
Advantages of one-party systems include stability and efficiency, but they also suppress dissent and eliminate choice. Multi-party systems, like Nigeria’s, offer diversity and competition, though they can also lead to fragmentation and gridlock.
What Lies Ahead for Nigeria?
With no constitutional ban on opposition parties, Nigeria has not yet become a one-party state — but the signs are worrisome. The ruling APC’s growing influence, coupled with a fragmented opposition, suggests the country is at a tipping point.
The 2027 elections could be a decisive moment. Can the opposition regroup? Will voters reject what some see as creeping authoritarianism?
Faruk Aliyu believes they can. He urges Nigerians to stay vigilant and use their democratic rights, including recalling defectors. “The people hold the ultimate power,” he asserts.
Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State agrees, stating the APC merely aims to be the dominant party, not the sole one. “We don’t want a one-party state. We just want to be the leading party by winning elections,” he said.
Conclusion: Democracy Tested but Not Defeated
Nigeria’s democracy is under pressure, but it’s not yet broken. The mass defections and internal collapse of the opposition are serious warning signs. Yet, history shows that Nigerians can rise to defend their democratic ideals.
With 2027 on the horizon, the choice is still in the hands of the people: consolidate the current trend or demand a competitive, vibrant democracy where every voice truly counts.
