As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks two years in office, his administration paints a picture of bold reform and foundational progress. Yet, the reactions from citizens, opposition parties, and analysts suggest a more complicated reality—one where the economic, political, and social impact of these reforms remains hotly debated.
From his first day in office, Tinubu took a decisive step by removing the fuel subsidy—long seen as a drain on Nigeria’s public finances but also a source of relief for the average Nigerian. This, coupled with the unification of the multiple exchange rates, was intended to stabilize the economy and attract foreign investment. His government claims that these actions contributed to increasing the country’s foreign exchange reserves from a concerning $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by the end of 2024. Similarly, debt management has improved, according to official reports, with the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropping from an alarming 100% to less than 40%.
However, these reforms have come with sharp costs. The fuel subsidy removal triggered a rise in the cost of transportation, food, and other basic commodities, intensifying hardship for millions of Nigerians. While the government insists inflation has begun to ease, many still feel the sting of higher prices and stagnant incomes. The promised palliatives, critics argue, have either been insufficient or poorly implemented, failing to truly cushion the economic shock.
On revenue generation, Tinubu’s administration touts progress. Tax reforms led by the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms have reportedly boosted the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to 13.5%, with significant gains in transparency and efficiency. Revenue in the first quarter of 2025 surpassed ₦6 trillion—an all-time high. These efforts, along with a push to digitize revenue collection and reduce multiple taxation, are seen by some as steps toward long-term sustainability.
Yet, these achievements are tempered by political and governance concerns. The opposition, particularly the PDP, questions the credibility of Tinubu’s economic statistics, alleging that the realities on ground—rising poverty, youth unemployment, and insecurity—do not reflect the administration’s optimistic reports. Furthermore, civil society groups have raised alarms about democratic backsliding, citing episodes of press suppression, court disobedience, and a slow response to widespread insecurity.
Supporters argue that Tinubu inherited a deeply troubled economy and that his administration needs time for its reforms to yield visible results. They point to macroeconomic indicators like increasing investor confidence and improved national credit ratings as signs of positive momentum. Critics, however, stress that reforms must be people-centered, warning that an economy growing on paper without a corresponding rise in quality of life for citizens is a hollow victory.
In summary, President Tinubu’s two years have been marked by ambitious, often controversial reforms that aim to recalibrate Nigeria’s economic foundation. While some gains are measurable, the lived experiences of many Nigerians suggest that these reforms are yet to translate into tangible relief. Whether Tinubu’s legacy will be one of painful but necessary change—or of mismanaged transformation—remains to be seen in the years ahead.
