The political atmosphere surrounding Vice President Kashim Shettima’s future role in the 2027 presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is not unusual within Nigeria’s political landscape. Since the beginning of the Fourth Republic, most sitting vice presidents — with the notable exception of Namadi Sambo — have encountered political turbulence regarding their continuation in a second-term ticket. Yet, history shows that no incumbent president has outrightly dropped their deputy ahead of a second-term run.
In 2002, when President Olusegun Obasanjo formally announced his bid for re-election, the presence and status of Vice President Atiku Abubakar were conspicuously absent from the conversation. Atiku, who was out of the country at the time, had to make a hurried return to Nigeria upon learning from political associates — particularly Chief Tony Anenih — that a declaration was imminent. He attended the event, but there was no mention of his role in the upcoming political journey.
Before Obasanjo’s declaration, there was widespread speculation — largely believed to have been orchestrated by Atiku’s camp — promoting the “Mandela Option.” This concept proposed that Obasanjo would step aside after one term and pass the leadership baton to Atiku, echoing Nelson Mandela’s decision to serve only one term in South Africa. At the time, some state governors aligned with Atiku lent weight to this campaign. The idea reportedly irritated Obasanjo, who, influenced by Anenih, began to view Atiku as overly ambitious and politically threatening.
Adding to Obasanjo’s suspicions was a visit orchestrated by Anenih to the headquarters of the National Democratic Project (NDP) — an NGO linked to Atiku and led by Dr. Usman Bugaje. The NDP had developed comprehensive policy blueprints for Nigeria’s development, and its offices were, interestingly, located near Anenih’s residence in Asokoro, Abuja. Rumors swirled that the NDP served as the unofficial campaign base for Atiku’s presidential aspirations. Whether Obasanjo believed this or not remains unclear, but by the time he announced his second-term bid, Atiku had been sidelined. This marked the beginning of deep-seated political friction between the two.
Eventually, under pressure from pro-Atiku governors threatening to oppose him at the PDP convention, Obasanjo retained Atiku on the ticket. However, their relationship was never the same again.
Similarly, in 2010, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan faced speculation about being replaced by Chief James Ibori, the influential former governor of Delta State, ahead of the 2011 elections. During President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s illness, Jonathan’s influence reportedly diminished, with Ibori’s camp allegedly asserting dominance within the administration. At one point, there were even strong whispers that Jonathan might be pushed out. But the sudden death of Yar’Adua in 2010 shifted the political equation entirely, leading to Ibori’s eventual political downfall and exile, and clearing the path for Jonathan’s ascension.
Unlike others, Namadi Sambo, who became vice president under Jonathan, faced no apparent threat to his position when the 2015 election approached. In contrast, Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President to Muhammadu Buhari, reportedly experienced significant marginalization. His decisive actions while serving as acting president — especially the dismissal of DSS Director Lawal Daura — created tensions. Critics believed he had outshone Buhari during the latter’s medical absences. Although there were internal murmurs about dropping Osinbajo, Buhari retained him, even assigning him a prominent role in the 2019 campaign before scaling back his influence post-election.
As for Vice President Kashim Shettima, the current speculation surrounding his future appears less grounded in any misstep or controversy. Rather, the uncertainty seems to stem from internal maneuverings within the APC, particularly among influential party figures and senior presidency officials who may be eyeing his position.
Notably, Shettima was one of the earliest and most consistent supporters of President Bola Tinubu during the 2023 election campaign. His loyalty has persisted, despite growing criticisms of the Tinubu administration, especially accusations of fostering nepotism on an unprecedented scale. Yet, Shettima has remained silent, even when these criticisms place him at odds with his political base in the North.
Some suggest that President Tinubu’s political history with his deputies during his time as Lagos State governor — a period marked by recurring frictions — may be influencing current suspicions. However, the comparison seems misplaced in this case, as there is no record of conflict between Tinubu and Shettima.
There are also quiet rumblings that Tinubu might consider a Christian running mate to create a religious balance ahead of 2027. Furthermore, whispers in Abuja suggest that a powerful security official is actively positioning to replace Shettima on the ticket.
Ultimately, if Tinubu and Shettima were to part ways before the 2027 elections, both men would owe Nigerians a comprehensive explanation — not only for the political divorce but also for what they have achieved with the mandate they currently hold.
