Except a miracle happens, Nigerians may be witnessing the final active days of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Only a major internal transformation could alter this trajectory. Yet, considering the nation’s political realities, the party appears to be in decline, with only a handful of loyal governors still holding the fort.
Over the past few years, the PDP has faced a devastating wave of defections, unprecedented in Nigeria’s political history. Within a short span, the party’s control has shrunk from 11 states in May 2023 to just eight, raising serious questions about its direction and survival.
A Party in Decline
At the start of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the PDP governed Oyo, Adamawa, Bauchi, Rivers, Benue, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Taraba, Bayelsa, and Plateau states. However, political pressure, personal ambition, and strategic realignments soon led several governors to defect. Among those who switched allegiance to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) were Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, Enugu’s Peter Mbah, Bayelsa’s Douye Diri, and Akwa Ibom’s Umoh Eno.
This steady erosion of influence is more than just a numbers game—it exposes the PDP’s deep structural weaknesses. Governors, who traditionally serve as the backbone of a political party’s grassroots operations, have now become its most unreliable members. Their defections send a damaging signal: if the most powerful figures within the party can abandon ship, what incentive remains for the rank and file to stay loyal?
The Threat of a One-Party State
The consequences of these defections extend beyond the PDP. As the opposition weakens, Nigeria’s political landscape risks tipping toward one-party dominance. Many defections are driven not by ideology but by self-interest—access to federal power and patronage. This dynamic undermines the essence of multiparty democracy, discouraging competition, and eroding accountability.
In this political storm, a few governors have chosen to remain in the PDP, determined to rebuild the party or go down defending its legacy.
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Seyi Makinde: The Lone South-West Pillar
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State stands out as one of the most resilient and independent voices within the PDP. In a region dominated by the APC, Makinde has managed to sustain his base through a blend of pragmatism, grassroots engagement, and effective governance.
Since taking office in 2019, Makinde has balanced collaboration with the federal government and loyalty to his party. His independence—bolstered by Oyo’s relatively strong economy and his administration’s achievements in infrastructure, education, and security—has insulated him from pressure to defect.
Makinde’s politics are driven less by ideology and more by principle and legacy. He has become a model of performance-based leadership and is widely seen as the potential new face of a reformed opposition—young, pragmatic, and focused on development. His refusal to join the defection trend reflects both strategic foresight and a belief in rebuilding the PDP from the grassroots.
As the only PDP governor in the South-West, Makinde faces intense political isolation. Yet, his growing national appeal, especially among young voters and technocrats, continues to strengthen his influence. Insiders suggest that if the PDP collapses, Makinde could spearhead a new centrist coalition to redefine Nigeria’s opposition politics.
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Bala Mohammed: The Northern Strategist
In Bauchi State, Governor Bala Mohammed has emerged as one of the PDP’s most seasoned figures. A former senator and FCT minister, Bala combines administrative expertise with political dexterity. Despite heavy pressure to defect, he has remained committed to the PDP, focusing instead on consolidating its base in the North-East.
His administration’s investments in infrastructure, healthcare, and education have earned him widespread recognition as one of the most effective northern governors. Bala’s balanced approach—maintaining cordial relations with the federal government while preserving party identity—has allowed him to keep the PDP relevant in his region.
Within the party, he now serves as a stabilizing figure, mediating internal disputes and guiding reconciliation efforts between northern and southern blocs. Analysts believe his continued loyalty is part of a long-term plan to preserve the PDP’s influence and bargaining power ahead of the 2027 elections.
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Ahmadu Fintiri: The Steadfast Fighter
Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa represents a new generation of pragmatic, reform-minded northern leaders. His victory in the fiercely contested 2023 elections against the APC’s Senator Aishatu “Binani” Dahiru solidified his status as a resilient political force.
Rather than succumb to pressure to defect, Fintiri doubled down on rebuilding his local political base, emphasizing youth inclusion, development, and transparency. He has been vocal about the importance of maintaining a viable opposition, arguing that “leadership means standing firm when it matters.”
Fintiri’s composure and quiet confidence position him as a potential power broker in the future of Nigeria’s opposition. Together with Makinde and Bala Mohammed, he represents the trio of credible leaders still capable of holding the PDP together.
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The Road Ahead
Apart from these three, the remaining PDP governors—Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Caleb Muftwang (Plateau), and Ademola Adeleke (Osun)—are also under mounting pressure to defect. Should any of them leave, the PDP risks slipping into total irrelevance, leaving Nigeria without a strong opposition voice.
Ultimately, the future of the PDP depends on whether these few remaining leaders can rebuild trust, restore ideological clarity, and reconnect with the grassroots. Without that, the party that once ruled Africa’s largest democracy for 16 years may soon fade into history—marking the dawn of a one-party state in Nigeria.
