ABUJA — The International Republican Institute (IRI) has identified vote-buying, insecurity and declining public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as major threats to the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
The institute disclosed this in a statement of findings and recommendations released after its Pre-Election Assessment Mission to Nigeria ahead of the 2027 polls.
The mission was co-led by IRI President, Daniel Twining, and a member of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) Board and former Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Ambassador Jendayi Frazer.
The assessment team was deployed to Nigeria from August 17 to 21, 2026, to examine the electoral environment and preparations for the January 16, 2027 general elections.
According to the mission, Nigeria’s economic difficulties, insecurity and declining confidence in political institutions could undermine efforts to conduct elections in an environment that supports meaningful democratic participation.
The IRI expressed particular concern over the country’s security situation, citing terrorist attacks by Islamic militants, violence targeting Christian communities, intercommunal conflicts involving both Christians and Muslims, as well as broader ethnic tensions that have contributed to persistent insecurity in parts of the country.
The mission noted that although the recent off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states were generally peaceful on Election Day, violent disruptions during collation, persistent vote-buying and political violence exposed structural weaknesses that could not be addressed through technical preparations alone.
It disclosed that civil society monitors recorded more than 81 election-related violent incidents in Osun State in the year preceding the governorship election, with the level of violence increasing as Election Day drew closer.
The institute warned that electoral reforms and improved election administration would have limited impact if voters and candidates did not feel physically secure or if voters lacked confidence that their ballots would remain secret and free from political influence.
Concern Over Confidence in INEC
The mission identified public confidence in INEC as one of the most critical challenges confronting the electoral body ahead of the 2027 elections.
It said concerns surrounding the conduct and management of the 2023 presidential election continued to influence public perceptions of the commission.
It also warned that uncertainty surrounding the implementation of new electoral provisions could further deepen distrust among voters and other stakeholders.
According to the institute, the credibility of a closely contested election would depend not only on effective technical administration but also on the transparent and consistent application of electoral procedures.
It stressed the need for clear and timely communication from electoral authorities and broad public confidence that the process would be secure, credible and impartial.
IRI Calls for Tougher Action Against Vote-Buying
On vote-buying, the mission recommended stronger cooperation among INEC, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and security agencies to investigate credible allegations and prosecute cases of voter inducement.
It urged authorities to make it clear that the use of financial or material incentives to influence voters was incompatible with legitimate political competition.
Political parties were also advised to hold their officials, agents and supporters accountable for involvement in vote-buying.
The institute called on party leadership at both national and state levels to communicate clear expectations to party members and supporters down to local government and polling-unit levels.
It further recommended the application of appropriate sanctions, fines and prosecution for civil and criminal offences associated with vote-buying.
Calls for Stronger BVAS, IReV Testing
On election administration, the mission urged INEC to conduct more comprehensive stress tests of its electoral systems and organise mock elections to identify and address possible challenges involving the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV).
It said the tests should establish whether BVAS could effectively accredit voters through fingerprint and facial recognition under different real-life conditions, including locations with limited cellular network connectivity.
The institute also recommended that INEC issue supplementary guidelines clearly defining what constitutes a “communication failure.”
The guidelines, it said, should establish a uniform process for documenting and resolving electronic transmission failures, including situations where the physical Form EC8A becomes the primary document for collation.
Security Agencies Urged to Protect Election Process
On security, the mission called on INEC and security agencies to prioritise the protection of election facilities, voters, candidates, election officials, materials, political party agents and observer groups without restricting lawful access to the electoral process.
It urged authorities to pay particular attention to preventing intimidation and ensuring the safe movement of election results to collation centres.
The Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) was also advised to rely on existing threat assessments to identify locations where violence and insecurity could discourage voter participation or disrupt election administration.
The institute recommended the development of location-specific security plans, including the deployment of quick-response forces to areas identified as high-risk.
Warning Over AI-Generated Disinformation
The mission also raised concerns about information integrity during the 2027 election campaign.
It cautioned political parties and candidates against creating or amplifying false information, manipulated electoral materials and AI-generated impersonations capable of undermining public confidence or escalating political tensions.
It further urged INEC to strengthen its public communication mechanisms to ensure that false narratives and misleading information are identified and corrected promptly through authoritative channels.
Mission Consulted More Than 65 Stakeholders
The IRI said its assessment team consulted more than 65 stakeholders during the mission, including electoral officials, security agencies, political parties and civil society organisations.
The assessment also drew on the work of two long-term analysts deployed to Nigeria in July, as well as direct observation of the off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states.
The institute said the findings and recommendations were intended to support Nigerian stakeholders in strengthening the electoral process ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“In the spirit of international support for democratic elections, this statement offers key findings and recommendations to Nigerian stakeholders to help strengthen the electoral process ahead of the 2027 elections,” the mission said.
