Moody’s Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from stable to positive while retaining the country’s B3 long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings.
The international credit rating agency announced the decision in a rating action published on its website on Friday.
According to Moody’s, the positive outlook reflects notable improvements in Nigeria’s external position and stronger-than-expected economic growth. It said sustained improvements in these areas could strengthen the country’s ability to withstand external shocks and improve overall economic resilience.
The agency identified several factors behind the improved outlook, including sizeable current account surpluses, rising foreign exchange reserves, better functioning of the foreign exchange market and improved transmission of monetary policy.
Moody’s also expects increased oil production to provide additional support for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 and 2027.
“The change in outlook to positive from stable reflects improvements in Nigeria’s external position and stronger-than-expected economic growth, which, if sustained, would enhance the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks, strengthen economic resilience and, over time, support a gradual increase in government revenue,” the agency said.
Moody’s said Nigeria’s external position had strengthened significantly over the past year, with the country’s current account surplus exceeding its earlier expectations.
It projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would rise to about 6.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2026 before moderating to approximately 4.1 per cent in 2027.
The agency also highlighted the growth in Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. It said gross reserves, excluding gold, Special Drawing Rights and Nigeria’s position at the International Monetary Fund, had risen to about $31.2 billion, representing an improvement from the previous year.
According to Moody’s, the reserves are now sufficient to cover roughly six months of imports.
The rating agency said the combination of sustained current account surpluses and continued accumulation of foreign exchange reserves would significantly reduce Nigeria’s exposure to external pressures if maintained.
“Taken together, the large current account surpluses and the reserve accumulation, if maintained, would materially reduce Nigeria’s external vulnerability,” Moody’s said.
The positive outlook means Moody’s sees a possibility of an improvement in Nigeria’s credit rating if the recent economic and external-sector gains are sustained. However, the country’s B3 rating remains in place.
Moody’s is a global credit rating agency that assesses the creditworthiness of governments and companies, providing investors with an indication of the risk associated with lending to or investing in them.
Moody’s Upgrades Nigeria’s Credit Outlook to Positive, Affirms B3 Rating
